In the wild and wacky world of digital assets…
Bitcoin stands as a shining beacon of innovation and, let’s be honest, a whole lot of head-scratching. Its price fluctuations have captivated investors and analysts alike, leading to countless attempts to unravel the mysteries behind its movements. One approach that has gained traction (and the only one that I believe has any proof behind it) is the analysis of Bitcoin’s historical cycles. So, buckle up, folks, as we embark on a journey through how Bitcoin’s cyclical nature might forecast for the future
Bitcoin’s Cyclical Nature: A Tale of Boom, Bust, and HODLing
Over the past decade plus, Bitcoin has exhibited a remarkable recurring pattern of boom-and-bust cycles that would make a rollercoaster operator green with envy. Noting, however, that a roller coaster ride is the same each time if you’re on the same one, meaning: what happens is predictable. As I’ve previously posted (investing-in-bitcoin-101) these 4-year cycles typically consist of three distinct phases:
The (mature) bull market, which lasts about 1 year. Technically, that is initiated by the BTC halving, but in terms of the actual gate opening, this phase starts right around the last month of the halving year, which, as I write this, was 2024. This phase ends when the newest (i.e. latest in the cycle) Bitcoin all-time high (ATH) is achieved, whether that is a double top (as in 2013 and 2021 and potentially 2025 – more on that later) or a single top (as in 2017).
The bear market, which lasts about 1 year. A bear market follows quickly after the ATH and a cliff drop of the BTC price marks the beginning of ‘crypto winter’. On average, Bitcoin loses well over 75% of its value during this phase of the cycle. The vast majority of new investors (and even some seasoned veterans who buy into the “this time is different” hype) lose hope…and their money…somewhere in here. The ONLY possible difference I see coming this cycle is that maybe the market has matured enough (meaning grown in size enough) that NEW whales like Blackrock may have enough power to keep the coming crash from being a cliff drop. 2026 will be the teller on that.
The recovery phase, AKA the early bull market, which lasts about 2 years. After every sharp decline Bitcoin has reached a macro price bottom, and then there is a long phase of accumulation opportunity that defines the so-called ‘boredom’ of crypto winter. During this phase, Bitcoin always goes up, but it does so very slowly with numerous corrections. And in some cycles, like both 2012-16 and 2020-24, trades in nearly flat patterns for months at a time.
Annually, from the year the halving date occurs: Up, up, down, up.
Historical Cycle Analysis: The Ups and Downs of Bitcoin’s Price
The most recent Bitcoin cycle began on April 19th of 2024, when the price was a happy $63,844, having already hit the then surprise ATH of $73,650 just a month prior. That ATH at the END of a cycle, an historic first, was indeed something new and different for crypto enthusiasts. Since then, Bitcoin has experienced what I’m calling a bull “walk” (as opposed to bull run), plodding slowly up just past $103K and then retreating slightly, and as I write this in early January, back up over the $100K mark just a hair.
I will say that I (like many other OGs in the crypto community) fully expected a HUGE drop after all those longer-in-the-tooth investors that had $100K as long term price targets had their sell orders filled, but here’s the thing: the market cap has grown SO MUCH in just the last 5 years that those folks who had that set a $100,000 mark as a target back before or slightly after $50K were few in comparison to the much larger market now. So, the $25+ billion selloff that happened shortly after that $100K mark was reached had A LOT LESS impact on the $2.09 TRILLION market (now) than it would have had on the roughly $126 BILLION dollar market of just 5 years ago.
Meaning that “buy the dip” opportunity at $94,312.26 a week after $100K hit had a lot less long term ROI potential than the $75K-ish bottom spot I expected when the market was 1600x plus SMALLER than it is today. That’s just insane growth to me. That said, I thought for sure we’d see a double top – just over $100K then a big drop and then a new much higher high like in the 2020-2024 cycle – but I’m just as happy to be wrong about that.
Published Bitcoin Predictions: Experts Weigh In
Numerous analysts and institutions have published their Bitcoin price predictions, ranging from the cautiously optimistic to the downright delusional. Here are a few notable ones that are at least based on reasonable data:
* Stock-to-Flow Model: This much criticized but pretty darn accurate model predicts that Bitcoin’s price will reach $422,362 by the end of 2025. I think that’s quite a stretch, but then, unless PlanB’s model breaks, he could very well be right. And others agree.
* Mike Novogratz: The CEO of Galaxy Digital predicted that Bitcoin will hit $500,000…IF (note the big if here) Trump follows through with plans to implement a US strategic reserve of Bitcoin. He and I both agree that’s unlikely but should it actually happen, he may be right.
* Cathie Wood: The founder of Ark Invest predicts that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2030. Early last year I thought she was spot on. Now, I’m saying that doesn’t happen until 2033, but hey boys and girls…that’s only 8 years away. That’s a blink of an eye in economic terms.
My Prediction: Base case = $177,000 by YE 2025
Based on Bitcoin’s historical cycles and my published predictions, I currently believe that Bitcoin’s price will be at $177,000 by the end of 2025, having already reached a higher new ATH earlier in the fall. How high of an ATH? Conservatively, I’ll say $220,000.
However…
The Potential Upside: $302,000 with Trump’s Bitcoin Strategic Reserve
If soon-to-be President Donald Trump implements a Bitcoin strategic reserve, as he has suggested, it could indeed have a huge impact on the price. A strategic reserve would essentially create a tidal wave of demand for Bitcoin. Not just in the US, but I would foresee other nation states following suit, potentially driving the price to enormous new highs. In this scenario, I believe that Bitcoin could easily reach $302,000 by the end of 2025. However, let’s not forget that Trump is known for his, shall we say, wishful thinking. So, take this prediction with a grain of salt and a healthy dose of skepticism.
Obviously, we’ll know soon enough whether my numbers match up with reality but I take pride in the fact that my published guesses based on cyclical growth patterns haven’t been all that much off…so far. 😉
| 2021 | $55,053.12 | 89.83% | 8.7% LESS than my guess made 3/4/21 |
| 2022 | $16,547.50 | -69.94% | 3.8% HIGHER than my guess made 2/12/22 |
| 2023 | $42,265.19 | 155.42% | 15.47% HIGHER than my guess made 2/15/23 |
| 2024 | $93,452.97 | 121.11% | 6.11% LESS than my guess made 2/9/24 |
Will I be right or wrong this year? Truthfully, it shouldn’t matter since I tell everyone the same thing:
Don’t wait to buy Bitcoin. Buy Bitcoin and wait.
Disclaimer: Do Your Own Research!
My predictions are based on historical cyclical data and published forecasts, and the caveat of course is that they should not be considered financial advice. While I still believe the cycle clock is ticking correctly, investors should always conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.
Remember, some still say investing in Bitcoin is like playing a game of poker with Lady Luck herself. Larry Fink, Michael Saylor and I disagree, but…you do you.
Just don’t tell me I didn’t let you know what’s coming.
Full disclosure: Upwards of 85+% of my cryptocurrency portfolio is now straight up Bitcoin, and give or take a few percentage points, around 10% is Ethereum. I converted almost all of my other ALTs (with the exception of XRP and SHIB) to Bitcoin back before it hit $100K the first time.
If you want to know more about what I see happening in the crypto market, feel free to email me at john.logan@moneytree.ventures.
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